The Down Round

Update: I'm joining Boulevard

Adios, venture capital.

Aug 4 • Patrick Mathieson

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May 2026

If humans and AI are substitutes, the asset-light vs. asset-heavy divide is sus

Many people are asking: "Is this the worst title for a blog post ever?"

May 20 • Patrick Mathieson

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February 2026

How will SaaS businesses evolve in the era of AI?

A few predictions coming out of the SaaSpocalypse.

Feb 24 • Patrick Mathieson

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January 2026

It's (probably) a good time to buy horizontal software

Gulp.

Jan 30 • Patrick Mathieson

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December 2025

AI bear narratives are falling like dominoes

It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

Dec 4, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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November 2025

Is AI going to collapse software pricing?

Short post today, just some brief food for thought.

Nov 3, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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October 2025

How many years until AI revenues 10x from here?

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the mismatch between the hyperscalers’ rate of capital expenditures and the current (much smaller) run…

Oct 22, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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Master list of "will AI disrupt software?" bear and bull arguments

Probing the biggest question in software today.

Oct 2, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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September 2025

5 reasons why we might not be in an AI Capex bubble

We'll find out one way or another

Sep 19, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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August 2025

An anxious moment for software

Drums, drums in the deep.

Aug 27, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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Famous last words

Are the negative gross margin startups going to make it?

Aug 22, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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June 2025

Incumbents can use Cursor, too

Not every new technology shift favors startups.

Jun 24, 2025 • Patrick Mathieson

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