The Down Round

Is AI going to collapse software pricing?

Short post today, just some brief food for thought.

Nov 3 • 

Patrick Mathieson

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October 2025

How many years until AI revenues 10x from here?

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the mismatch between the hyperscalers’ rate of capital expenditures and the current (much smaller) run…

Oct 22 • 

Patrick Mathieson

6

1

Master list of "will AI disrupt software?" bear and bull arguments

Probing the biggest question in software today.

Oct 2 • 

Patrick Mathieson

13

2

2

September 2025

5 reasons why we might not be in an AI Capex bubble

We'll find out one way or another

Sep 19 • 

Patrick Mathieson

14

5

1

August 2025

An anxious moment for software

Drums, drums in the deep.

Aug 27 • 

Patrick Mathieson

9

1

1

Famous last words

Are the negative gross margin startups going to make it?

Aug 22 • 

Patrick Mathieson

11

1

1

June 2025

Incumbents can use Cursor, too

Not every new technology shift favors startups.

Jun 24 • 

Patrick Mathieson

8

2

April 2025

Some charts you should really think hard about

What does all of this recent economic noise mean?

Apr 15 • 

Patrick Mathieson

15

3

March 2025

We need pro-competence, pro-reform Democrats

First party to get a clue wins the White House.

Mar 19 • 

Patrick Mathieson

3

1

Look at what's happening to public SaaS business efficiency

So it begins...

Mar 11 • 

Patrick Mathieson

4

1

Why lying matters

What would George Orwell think of the President's speech last night?

Mar 5 • 

Patrick Mathieson

4

1

February 2025

The antibody theory of Elon

Certain topics become big public controversies precisely because they have multiple reasonable, yet incompatible, explanations.

Feb 24 • 

Patrick Mathieson

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5

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